Strategic Relevance Over Sympathy: Haiti’s Next Move in U.S. Foreign Policy
Global Shipping Routes | CIA, Esri, Michael Horner, Story Maps team
Three Key Points:
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The U.S. is moving away from humanitarian aid and democracy promotion, favoring a realpolitik strategy that rewards countries based on their value to U.S. economic and security interests.
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With its control over the Windward Passage and role in regional migration, Haiti has leverage—but without a clear Haitian national strategy, it risks being treated solely as a security threat to contain.
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To stay relevant, Haiti should formalize security cooperation with the U.S., modernize its port infrastructure, and position itself as a logistics hub aligned with U.S. and CARICOM supply chains.
Haiti's Challenge in a New U.S. Foreign Policy Era
For decades, U.S. foreign policy toward countries like Haiti have been guided by the idea of promoting democracy, development, and human rights. However, this era is ending as the U.S. shifts toward a foreign policy rooted in realpolitik, focusing on power, competition, and national interest.
Within this new framework, the value of a country is determined by its strategic usefulness—whether in regional security, economic potential, or diplomatic positioning. This shift is evident as the U.S. increasingly prioritizes deals and partnerships that serve its economic and security goals, with migration control, trade routes, military cooperation, and countering rivals like China now taking precedence.
Haiti's strategic position in the Windward Passage, its role in regional security, the migration crisis, and economic ties to the U.S. through diasporic remittances shape its engagement with the U.S. Yet if Haiti fails to align strategically, it risks being marginalized and further destabilized as the U.S. moves away from humanitarian engagement toward a more transactional diplomacy. Haiti's ability to assert its strategic advantages will determine whether it is seen as a key partner or simply a security problem to be contained.
I. The End of Multilateralism and the Rise of Transactional Realism
President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy in Oval Office, Feb. 28, 2025 | Youtube.com
The New Era of Realpolitik
Trump's second-term foreign policy is a strategic pivot aiming at reshaping global diplomacy. The focus has shifted from multilateralism—defending post-World War II Western shared values like democracy, human rights, or multilateral cooperation, to "protecting" specific national interests. This shift has been described as transactional realism rooted in realpolitik principles.
Political theorist Henry C. Emery described realpolitik as an approach based on "existing circumstances and needs," where the focus on securing gains through negotiation drives decision-making rather than adherence to principle. In this model, traditional alliances seem to matter little, and relationships seem to be earned through clear contributions to U.S. security and economic objectives.
Key examples include:
NATO Burden-Sharing: The U.S. is pressing European allies to increase defense spending and to support Ukraine, with less willingness to carry the financial load alone.
Ukraine Military Aid: The rationale behind U.S. military aid to Ukraine is shifting from defending sovereignty to focusing on securing American economic advantages, as indicated by President Trump's recent assertion to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, "I am not aligned with anybody. I am aligned with the world."
Economic Competition: The U.S. started trade wars with rivals like China and partners like Mexico and Canada to force them to align with its industrial and strategic goals.
In short, even close allies must now prove their value by contributing directly to U.S. priorities.
Application to Latin America
This transactional foreign policy approach is shaping U.S. policy toward its neighbors in the Western Hemisphere. The days of democracy promotion efforts or development programs for their own sake are gone. Instead, the U.S. is focused on two main objectives:
Countering China's influence, particularly through blocking or reversing Chinese infrastructure projects.
Controlling migration and crime, especially drug trafficking and gang violence that threaten U.S. borders.
Recent actions reflecting this shift:
Panama halted the high-profile Chinese development deal after U.S. diplomatic pressure, prioritizing U.S. strategic concerns over Chinese investment.
El Salvador proposed a U.S.-backed plan to house foreign prisoners, directly supporting U.S. domestic security interests.
The Dominican Republic has committed to working closely with the U.S. on sanctions enforcement and intelligence sharing, further solidifying its strategic value.
The underlying message is clear: the U.S. expects its partners to actively address shared security threats and economic competition. The focus is no longer on building stronger states for their own sake. It is now about how those states can help the U.S. meet its immediate strategic goals. This realignment leaves Haiti with a clear choice: either show its strategic value or risk being sidelined in a region where only the most "useful" partners secure U.S. attention.
II. Rubio's Posture: Defining U.S. Strategic Interests in Haiti
Haitian Transitional Presidential Council (TPC) President Fritz Alphonse Jean and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, April 2025 | U.S. State Department
Understanding Rubio's evolving foreign policy toward Haiti requires focusing on his key national security priorities. Rubio's posture toward Haiti, which he projects broadly, is a strategic approach focused on four pillars: (1) securitizing migration, (2) minimizing U.S. investment in democratic institution-building, (3) fostering regional burden-sharing, and (4) engaging economically primarily through nearshoring. Unlike previous U.S. approaches, this represents a shift from emphasizing humanitarian aid and democracy promotion. Rubio's posture signals a pivot toward a security-first engagement where Haiti's relevance may be tied directly to U.S. national interests.
Rubio's hints at a Haiti-focused policy reflect a direct application of Trump's transactional realism. His early approach foreshadows a redirection from the traditional aid-driven model in favor of a new approach that will measure Haiti's necessity to be prioritized mainly through its alignment with U.S. security and economic interests. This emerging strategy follows a pattern of U.S. policy shifts toward Haiti, where each administration has recalibrated its engagement based on immediate strategic concerns and needs rather than sustainable long-term development efforts.
While Obama emphasized humanitarian aid and institution-building, Trump's first term pivoted towards migration deterrence and security enforcement. Biden attempted a hybrid model that combined governance stabilization with regional burden-sharing, but with limited impact. Rubio's approach appears to prioritize security coordination with the Dominican Republic and economic leverage through nearshoring initiatives, opting for pragmatism over democratic institution-building, as reflected in statements during his first trip as Secretary of State to the Dominican Republic. His April 2025 visit to Jamaica reinforced this strategy, emphasizing shared action on crime, migration, and supply chain realignment. The U.S. unveiled investments in surveillance and logistics, framing Jamaica as a model partner aligned with strategic priorities.
Should Rubio's approach truly develop into framing Haiti primarily as a security threat, this strategy may eventually weaken U.S. interests rather than strengthen them. By prioritizing containment over stabilization, the U.S. risks worsening Haiti's crisis, driving more migration and deepening the very instability it may seek to control. The emphasis on regional burden-sharing assumes that neighboring countries, particularly the Dominican Republic, would further absorb the continued fallout from Haiti's instability. Yet, ongoing border tensions and mass deportations already suggest otherwise.
Meanwhile, the push for nearshoring as an economic solution overlooks Haiti's weak infrastructure and fragile governance, making large-scale investment unlikely in the short term. Additionally, a securitized response that relies on force—although necessary— without strengthening state institutions could further worsen Haiti's gang conflict, reducing government control rather than restoring it. If one of Rubio's goals is simply to shift U.S. engagement with Haiti from development to a more security-enforcement focus, this approach will set the stage for a deeper crisis that the U.S. may not be able to ignore, with long-term consequences.
III. How Should Haiti Position Itself to Win?
The Windward Passage is a strategically vital maritime corridor between Haiti to the southeast and Cuba to the northwest. Spanning approximately 50 miles wide, the strait serves as one of the Caribbean's most important shipping lanes, connecting the Atlantic Ocean to the Caribbean Sea.
Global Shipping Routes | CIA, Esri, Michael Horner, Story Maps team
It is a critical link between the Panama Canal—through which roughly 5% of global maritime trade transits to major U.S. ports. From there, goods continue across transatlantic routes to Europe, reinforcing the Windward Passage as an indispensable artery in worldwide commerce and supply chains. The passage may be Haiti's strongest leverage in this new reality.
The Caribbean maritime sector is facing increasing challenges. The UNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport 2024 highlights that, between 2023 and 2024, disruptions in the Panama Canal caused by climate change increased sailing distances by 31% and a 20% reduction in transits, affecting trade from the Americas to Asia. Freight rates have also fluctuated, with a 36% drop in rates on Europe-to-South America routes and a 20% increase on Africa-to-South America routes.
Caribbean ports experience operational costs 2-3 times higher than global ports because of inefficiencies and trade imbalances. This fluctuation in cost emphasizes the need for investment in infrastructure and climate resilience to ensure Haiti can take full advantage of its strategic position. Haiti must strengthen maritime security and develop as a regional logistics hub to secure its future. Here's how:
Transforming Haiti into a Logistics Hub
Existing Strategic Importance
The Windward Passage serves as a key corridor for global and regional trade. This passage facilitates significant goods to major U.S. ports and transatlantic routes. The U.S. has prioritized securing this maritime space due to its military and commercial significance. However, Haiti lacks the infrastructure and legal framework to capitalize on this advantage.
Proposed Logistics Hub Strategy:
Developing Modern Port Infrastructure: Expanding ports' capability in Port-de-Paix and Cap-Haïtien and plan a new port infrastructure in the Môle-Saint-Nicolas area to accommodate transshipment and cargo processing with public-private partnerships.
Creating a Free Trade and Logistics Zone: Establishing a duty-free trade corridor at key ports along the Windward Passage, capable of attracting foreign direct investment, boosting manufacturing and re-export industries, and facilitating regional trade to position Haiti as a competitive logistics hub in the region.
Deeper Integrating into U.S. and CARICOM Supply Chains: Align ports with U.S. nearshoring initiatives, strengthen trade with CARICOM, and position Haiti as a logistics hub for goods moving between Latin America, the Caribbean, and North America.
Strengthening Maritime Governance: Modernize Haitian ports by establishing a new National Haitian Port Authority (APN) with stronger legal frameworks, enhanced security, and streamlined customs to curtail smuggling and improve operations.
Establishing a Maritime Patrol Framework for Haiti
Existing Initiatives
Haiti and the U.S. have collaborated on maritime security through various programs, but none constitute a formal maritime patrol framework:
The Maritime Joint Task Force for Counter-Narcotics Operations supports Haiti's Coast Guard but is narrowly focused on drug interdiction.
The U.S. and Haiti signed an agreement (1997, 2002) allowing U.S. Coast Guard operations in Haitian waters to combat maritime illegal drug trafficking, but it lacks Haitian-led enforcement capacity.
The Partnership for Prosperity and Security (PPS) in the Caribbean (1997) emphasizes regional security coordination. Still, Haiti remains a secondary participant rather than a strategic partner.
Proposed Maritime Patrol Framework
Haiti must formalize its maritime security cooperation with the U.S. and regional allies through a bilateral security framework that includes:
Haiti-U.S. Joint Maritime Command (JMC): A permanent coordination center will be established for patrolling the Windward Passage, intelligence sharing, and rapid response.
Legally Binding Security Compact: An initiative funded by the U.S. that will provide long-term financial and technical assistance, ensuring Haiti's patrol capability beyond ad hoc programs.
Regional Maritime Security Zone: Expanding PPS coordination to include joint patrols with the Dominican Republic and CARICOM states like Jamaica to secure shared waters.
As global trade intensifies and Washington prioritizes securing maritime chokepoints against Chinese influence, Haiti's position over the Windward Passage presents a critical opportunity. However, U.S. engagement will probably focus on security cooperation, migration management, and protecting commercial interests rather than open-ended reconstruction.
Developing the Windward Passage into a well-regulated commercial artery—backed by Haitian port infrastructure, security cooperation, and migration management—aligns with U.S. strategic interests. Haiti must demonstrate that its geography serves as a strategic asset to remain relevant, or it risks being pushed to the periphery of U.S. attention and viewed only through the lens of crisis containment. Strengthening ties with CARICOM and the African Union could enhance its position. However, overt alignment with China would likely trigger U.S. retaliation, given administration's push to curb Chinese influence in the region.
Haiti Policy House is a not-for-profit institution focusing on Haitian public policy issues. Its research is nonpartisan. Haiti Policy House does not take specific policy positions. Accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s).
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